Popularity, Elections, and Governmental Room for Maneuver: An Analysis of Legislative Production in France and in Italy

Paper
By Raùl Magni-Berton
English

Studies of governmental behavior in response to the political and economic situation tend to show that a combination of a forthcoming election and low popularity levels encourage the government to focus on short-term policies in order to reignite support. The traditional explanation is based on the idea that rulers try to manipulate the preferences of voters, who are viewed as blindfolded and passive. The purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative explanation based on the concept of an active electorate. The general assumption is that–“all things being equal–“people use variation in the Prime Minister’s popularity and the nearing of an election to try to influence government policies in their favor. This results in a drop in legislative production. This empirical study focuses on legislative production in France (1976–“2003) and Italy (1954–“1993).

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